Recent protests, coupled with a government crackdown and the potential for U.S. intervention, have placed Iran's Islamic Republic at a critical juncture, raising questions about its long-term viability. According to Gregory Brew, a historian of modern Iran and senior analyst at Eurasia Group, the regime's current path is unsustainable, marked by economic disintegration and increasing reliance on force to quell dissent.

The protests, which began earlier this month, reflect widespread discontent over economic conditions and political restrictions. The government's response has been met with international condemnation, particularly after reports of excessive force used against demonstrators. The United States has warned of potential direct intervention, though the specifics of such action remain unclear.

Brew argues that without a significant shift in policy, the Iranian government faces a slow but inevitable decline. "The Islamic Republic's current trajectory is unsustainable," he wrote in a recent analysis. "Without a course correction, a gradual internal disintegration of the economy and the increasing reliance on force to suppress dissent will doom the government to a painful death."

The possibility of regime change has been fueled, in part, by the emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran, as a potential leader. Pahlavi has openly expressed his desire to play a leading role should the current government fall, garnering support from some protesters.

However, analysts caution against assuming a swift collapse of the regime. Iran's government has weathered numerous challenges since the 1979 revolution, demonstrating resilience and a capacity for repression. Moreover, internal divisions within the opposition movement could hinder its ability to present a unified front.

The situation remains fluid, with various potential outcomes. Some observers believe the government may attempt reforms to address public grievances and ease tensions. Others predict a continuation of the current trajectory, marked by repression and economic stagnation. The role of external actors, particularly the United States, will also be crucial in shaping the future of Iran.