The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that trade tensions and a potential downturn in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector pose significant risks to global economic growth. The warning was included in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, which characterized the global economy as "steady" and projected "resilient" growth for the current year.

The IMF's forecast, formulated before former U.S. President Donald Trump's recent threat to impose tariffs on eight European nations opposing his proposed acquisition of Greenland, also emphasized the critical importance of central bank independence for maintaining global economic stability and fostering growth. The economic watchdog projects global growth to reach 3.3% this year, an increase from its prior forecast of 3.1%, before moderating slightly to 3.2% in 2027.

Speaking to the BBC, IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas described the global economic situation as one of resilience, stating, "We have a picture of a global economy that is growing at - it's not outsized growth rates but it's quite resilient, quite robust." He added that the global economy has, in a sense, been overcoming the trade disruptions of 20.

The IMF's assessment arrives amidst ongoing concerns about escalating trade disputes between major economies, particularly the United States and China, and the potential for these disputes to disrupt global supply chains and investment flows. The reference to the AI boom reflects the rapid growth and significant investment in the technology sector, which some analysts fear may be unsustainable, potentially leading to a market correction.

The IMF's emphasis on the independence of central banks comes as several countries grapple with political pressures on monetary policy. The fund argues that central banks must be free to make decisions based on economic data, without political interference, to effectively manage inflation and maintain financial stability. This is particularly relevant in emerging markets where central bank independence is often less entrenched.

The projected global growth rate of 3.3% represents a modest improvement, but the IMF's warning underscores the fragility of the recovery and the potential for unforeseen events to derail progress. The fund's report serves as a reminder to policymakers worldwide to address trade tensions, promote sustainable growth in the technology sector, and safeguard the independence of their central banks. The next World Economic Outlook is expected to provide further insights into the evolving global economic landscape.