The debate over the existence of an "AI bubble" intensified recently, with tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging signs of instability. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that the AI landscape isn't a single bubble, but rather a series of distinct bubbles, each with its own trajectory and potential for collapse.

The fervor surrounding AI has led to frothy valuations and overexcited investors, reminiscent of classic bubble dynamics. While some, like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, remain optimistic about AI's transformative potential, concerns about unsustainable growth are mounting. The key to understanding the situation lies in recognizing the layered structure of the AI ecosystem.

This ecosystem can be broken down into three layers, each with varying degrees of risk and defensibility. The most vulnerable layer consists of companies that essentially repackage existing AI models, such as OpenAI's API, with user-friendly interfaces and limited added functionality. These "wrapper companies" are particularly susceptible to market shifts and competition, making them the most likely to experience a rapid decline.

The implications of these potential bubble bursts extend beyond the financial realm. A collapse of wrapper companies could lead to job losses and a cooling of investor enthusiasm, potentially hindering the broader adoption of AI technologies. However, it could also lead to a necessary correction, weeding out unsustainable business models and paving the way for more robust and innovative AI applications. The long-term impact on society will depend on how these different layers of the AI ecosystem evolve and interact.