China's population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with registered births plummeting to a record low despite policies aimed at encouraging larger families. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported 7.92 million births in 2025, a rate of 5.63 per 1,000 people, marking a 17% decrease from the 9.54 million births in 2024. This is the lowest number of births recorded since 1949, when records began.

The overall population decreased by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion. Deaths also increased, rising to 11.31 million from 10.93 million the previous year, according to the NBS.

Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted the severity of the decline, stating that the 2025 birth rate was comparable to that of 1738, when China's population was approximately 150 million.

The declining birth rate and increasing death rate are deepening concerns about China's aging population, shrinking workforce, and the potential long-term impact on the nation's economy. The Chinese government has implemented various policies to encourage couples to have more children, including extending maternity leave, offering financial incentives, and improving childcare services. However, these measures have so far failed to reverse the downward trend.

Several factors contribute to the declining birth rate, including the high cost of raising children in urban areas, increasing educational and career opportunities for women, and a preference for smaller families. The one-child policy, implemented from 1979 to 2015, also had a lasting impact on family size preferences.

The demographic shift presents significant challenges for China. A smaller workforce could strain the country's economic growth, while a larger elderly population will place increased pressure on the healthcare and pension systems. The government is exploring various strategies to address these challenges, including raising the retirement age and investing in automation and artificial intelligence to boost productivity.

The use of AI in demographic analysis is also becoming more prevalent. AI algorithms can analyze vast datasets to identify trends and predict future population changes, allowing policymakers to make more informed decisions. For example, AI can be used to model the impact of different policies on fertility rates or to forecast the demand for elderly care services.

Looking ahead, China faces the challenge of adapting to a rapidly changing demographic landscape. The government's ability to implement effective policies to support families and promote economic growth will be crucial in mitigating the negative consequences of population decline. The next set of demographic data releases are expected in early 2026, which will provide further insights into the ongoing trends and their potential implications.