The debate over the existence of an "AI bubble" intensified recently, with tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging signs of instability in the AI market. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that the AI landscape isn't a single bubble, but rather a series of distinct bubbles, each with its own trajectory and potential for collapse.

The AI ecosystem can be broken down into three layers, each with unique economic characteristics and risk profiles. The most vulnerable of these are the "wrapper companies." These businesses primarily repackage existing AI models, such as OpenAI's API, with user-friendly interfaces and limited additional functionality.

These wrapper companies face significant challenges in establishing long-term defensibility. Their reliance on third-party AI models makes them susceptible to changes in pricing, availability, and functionality. As larger players develop their own internal AI capabilities, the value proposition of these wrapper companies diminishes, potentially leading to a rapid decline in their market value.

The implications of this layered bubble extend beyond individual companies. A collapse of the wrapper company bubble could trigger a broader reassessment of AI valuations, impacting investor sentiment and potentially slowing down overall investment in the AI sector. However, it's crucial to recognize that this wouldn't necessarily signal the end of AI innovation. Instead, it could represent a necessary correction, weeding out unsustainable business models and paving the way for more robust and defensible AI applications.

The future of AI hinges on the development of truly innovative and differentiated solutions. Companies that focus on building proprietary AI models, developing unique applications, and addressing specific industry needs are more likely to weather any potential market corrections and contribute to the long-term growth of the AI ecosystem.