Our Data — Crene Prediction Intelligence Platform

Our Data

We run 4 frontier AI models on earnings, macro releases, central bank decisions, and market events. We track which models get it right and make everything publicly verifiable.

80.3%
Verified Accuracy
AI consensus vs outcomes
0
Resolved Predictions
Auto-verified every 4h
0
Active Forecasts
552 companies
4
AI Models
GPT-4o · Gemini · Claude · Grok
10
Categories
Earnings, Macro, Crypto
4h
Update Cycle
Predictions + resolutions
How It Works
StepProcessDetailsFrequency
01Detect EventsScan upcoming earnings, macro releases, central bank meetings, and market events. Generate structured binary questions with resolution criteriaContinuous
02AI ForecastingGPT-4o, Gemini, Claude, Grok independently evaluate each question. Each produces a probability + reasoning6x daily
03Spread AnalysisCompute model agreement and spread. Flag high-spread predictions where AI models disagree on outcomesReal-time
04Auto-ResolutionWhen markets resolve, compare model predictions against actual outcomes. Score correct/incorrectEvery 4h
05Accuracy TrackingPer-model, per-category, and consensus accuracy updated. Calibration curves computed. All data publicEvery 4h
Data Principles
Public & Auditable

Every prediction, every resolution, every accuracy metric is publicly accessible. No black boxes.

Multi-Model Ensemble

Four frontier models forecast independently. Cross-model spread signals identify high-uncertainty events.

4-Model Consensus

No single AI model dependency. Consensus across 4 frontier models from 4 different providers reduces individual model bias.

Auto-Verified

Outcomes are resolved programmatically against market outcomes. No manual intervention, no cherry-picking.

Crene, Inc.San FranciscoPrediction Intelligence Platform
Crene — Our Data: Prediction Intelligence Platform