Will the rate of abandonment for enterprise generative AI pilots exceed 30% in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
55%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
32pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
40%-15 vs avg
Gemini
65%+10 vs avg
Claude
72%+17 vs avg
Grok
45%-10 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs GPT-4o (40%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceGartner AI Pilot Outcomes Survey, IDC AI Project Pipeline Report, BCG AI Adoption Index 2026