Will inference token costs decline by more than 60% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 40% YoY?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
37%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-7 vs avg
Gemini
25%-12 vs avg
Claude
28%-9 vs avg
Grok
65%+28 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (65%) vs Gemini (25%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceOpenAI, Anthropic, Google AI Studio published pricing; enterprise revenue from earnings calls and disclosed ARR statements