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Back to clusterPart ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?
Event · TECHNOLOGY

Will inference token costs decline by more than 60% YoY in 2026 while enterprise AI revenue grows less than 40% YoY?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026
37%probability

4-model average

LOWconfidence

building category history

—stability

loading

Divergingmodels

40pt spread

The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.

Belief trajectory

Loading belief trajectory...

Per-model probabilities

GPT-4o
30%-7 vs avg
Gemini
25%-12 vs avg
Claude
28%-9 vs avg
GrokGrok
65%+28 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (65%) vs Gemini (25%): Different weighting of factors

Resolution criteria

SourceOpenAI, Anthropic, Google AI Studio published pricing; enterprise revenue from earnings calls and disclosed ARR statements
CRENE-AIER-04-20261231Generated May 11, 2026