Will AI-attributable cloud services gross margins compress by more than 300 basis points YoY at major hyperscalers in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
49%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
42pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%+21 vs avg
Gemini
65%+16 vs avg
Claude
28%-21 vs avg
Grok
35%-14 vs avg
Key disagreementGPT-4o (70%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceMSFT, GOOG, AMZN Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 earnings calls, supplementals, and analyst breakdowns