Will proprietary frontier model API pricing decline by more than 50% YoY across the top 3 providers during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
30%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
10pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%
Gemini
30%
Claude
25%-5 vs avg
Grok
35%+5 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceOpenAI, Anthropic, Google AI Studio published pricing pages