Will Anthropic's disclosed ARR remain below $10B at any point during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
76%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
25pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%-6 vs avg
Gemini
70%-6 vs avg
Claude
72%-4 vs avg
Grok
95%+19 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (95%) vs GPT-4o (70%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceAnthropic investor updates, public disclosures, credible press reporting