Will Microsoft Copilot daily active usage rate among paid seats remain below 40% in any 2026 disclosure?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
56%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-26 vs avg
Gemini
65%+9 vs avg
Claude
62%+6 vs avg
Grok
70%+14 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (70%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceMicrosoft Work Trend Index 2026, Microsoft earnings commentary