Will Goldman Sachs publish a 2026 research note explicitly downgrading prior AI productivity assumptions?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
34%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
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Mixedmodels
17pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-4 vs avg
Gemini
45%+11 vs avg
Claude
28%-6 vs avg
Grok
35%+1 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research publications 2026