Will more than 3 Fortune 100 CEOs discuss "AI hype vs reality" skeptically in 2026 earnings commentary?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
63%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%+7 vs avg
Gemini
75%+12 vs avg
Claude
72%+9 vs avg
Grok
35%-28 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (75%) vs Grok (35%): Different weighting of factors