Will any major consulting firm publish a 2026 report on "AI implementation failures" or "AI fatigue"?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
76%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
13pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
75%-1 vs avg
Gemini
75%-1 vs avg
Claude
72%-4 vs avg
Grok
85%+9 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceMajor consulting firm thought leadership publications 2026