Will Gartner's 2026 AI Hype Cycle place generative AI in 'Trough of Disillusionment'?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
55%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-25 vs avg
Gemini
65%+10 vs avg
Claude
62%+7 vs avg
Grok
65%+10 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (65%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors