Will at least 3 Fortune 500 companies publicly announce "scaling back" or "rethinking" major AI initiatives during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
58%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
33pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+7 vs avg
Gemini
65%+7 vs avg
Claude
68%+10 vs avg
Grok
35%-23 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (68%) vs Grok (35%): Different weighting of factors