Will Morgan Stanley Q4 2026 CIO Survey show AI spend as #1 priority dropping below 50% of respondents?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
58%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+7 vs avg
Gemini
75%+17 vs avg
Claude
28%-30 vs avg
Grok
65%+7 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (75%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors