Will IDC Worldwide AI Spending Guide for 2026 revise downward by more than 10% from initial estimates?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
33%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
5pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-3 vs avg
Gemini
35%+2 vs avg
Claude
35%+2 vs avg
Grok
35%+2 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceIDC Worldwide AI Spending Guide 2026 (initial vs revised)