Will Microsoft disclose Copilot paid seat count below 15M at any 2026 reporting?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
38%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
40pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-3 vs avg
Gemini
65%+27 vs avg
Claude
28%-10 vs avg
Grok
25%-13 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (65%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors