Will any frontier provider introduce a sub-$0.50/1M input-token tier for a flagship model during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
53%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
45pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-23 vs avg
Gemini
35%-18 vs avg
Claude
72%+19 vs avg
Grok
75%+22 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (75%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors