Will inference token costs for open-source 70B-class models drop below $0.05/1M tokens on major hosting platforms by Q4 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
65%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
55pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-35 vs avg
Gemini
75%+10 vs avg
Claude
72%+7 vs avg
Grok
85%+20 vs avg
Key disagreementGrok (85%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors