Will OpenAI publicly disclose negative gross margin on inference for at least one quarter of 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
45pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-10 vs avg
Gemini
70%+30 vs avg
Claude
25%-15 vs avg
Grok
35%-5 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (70%) vs Claude (25%): Different weighting of factors