Will major productivity research (Microsoft Work Trend Index, etc.) show Copilot/AI feature usage rates stalling or dropping during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
30pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-10 vs avg
Gemini
60%+20 vs avg
Claude
38%-2 vs avg
Grok
35%-5 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (60%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceMicrosoft Work Trend Index 2026, Atlassian State of Teams 2026