Will GitHub show Copilot acceptance rates below 30% in 2026 published metrics?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
34%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
55pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
25%-9 vs avg
Gemini
70%+36 vs avg
Claude
28%-6 vs avg
Grok
15%-19 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (70%) vs Grok (15%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceGitHub Copilot research, Microsoft developer reports 2026