Will combined Big Tech 2026 capex be revised down by more than $30B mid-year?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
40%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-10 vs avg
Gemini
65%+25 vs avg
Claude
32%-8 vs avg
Grok
35%-5 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (65%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceHyperscaler earnings calls and capex guidance updates 2026