Will any hyperscaler explicitly announce capex moderation in 2026 citing demand uncertainty?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
60%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%+10 vs avg
Gemini
70%+10 vs avg
Claude
68%+8 vs avg
Grok
35%-25 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (70%) vs Grok (35%): Different weighting of factors