Will the rate of new nuclear-to-data-center power deals approved in 2026 fall below 5 across the US?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
39%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-9 vs avg
Gemini
30%-9 vs avg
Claude
72%+33 vs avg
Grok
25%-14 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceFERC filings, nuclear power industry trackers 2026