Will SG&A as % of revenue at major Fortune 500 firms decline by more than 100bps on average in 2026 vs 2025?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
36%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-1 vs avg
Gemini
60%+24 vs avg
Claude
25%-11 vs avg
Grok
25%-11 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (60%) vs Claude (25%): Different weighting of factors