Will tech firm software engineer headcount at top 10 tech employers decline more than 5% YoY in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
60%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
43pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%+10 vs avg
Gemini
75%+15 vs avg
Claude
32%-28 vs avg
Grok
65%+5 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (75%) vs Claude (32%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
Source10-K filings, LinkedIn data, industry tracker reports 2026