Will Goldman Sachs revise its 300M-jobs-impacted forecast downward during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
55%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
43pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+10 vs avg
Gemini
65%+10 vs avg
Claude
68%+13 vs avg
Grok
25%-30 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (68%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2026