Will major HR conferences feature themes about "AI not displacing workers as expected" in 2026 keynotes?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
51%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
42pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-21 vs avg
Gemini
70%+19 vs avg
Claude
72%+21 vs avg
Grok
35%-16 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors