Will the IMF or OECD publish a 2026 report tempering prior AI productivity or labor impact projections?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
52%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-17 vs avg
Gemini
70%+18 vs avg
Claude
68%+16 vs avg
Grok
35%-17 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (70%) vs GPT-4o (35%): Different weighting of factors
Resolution criteria
SourceIMF World Economic Outlook, OECD Economic Outlook 2026