Will DeepSeek or another non-US AI lab release a frontier-class model under permissive license during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
59%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
20pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.