Will any frontier provider exit the API business or significantly pivot away from API-first models during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
60%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Mixedmodels
15pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.