Will model context window pricing (cost per million tokens for 1M+ context) decline more than 60% YoY in 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
50%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
47pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
35%-15 vs avg
Gemini
75%+25 vs avg
Claude
28%-22 vs avg
Grok
65%+15 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (75%) vs Claude (28%): Different weighting of factors