Will the EU AI Act impose fines exceeding €100M against any single company during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
35%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
35pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-5 vs avg
Gemini
60%+25 vs avg
Claude
28%-7 vs avg
Grok
25%-10 vs avg
Key disagreementGemini (60%) vs Grok (25%): Different weighting of factors