Will the EU AI Office formally classify any frontier model as "systemic risk" during 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
48%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
38pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-18 vs avg
Gemini
30%-18 vs avg
Claude
68%+20 vs avg
Grok
65%+17 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (68%) vs GPT-4o (30%): Different weighting of factors