Will China's domestic GPU production reach 50% of domestic AI compute demand by Q4 2026?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
31%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
10pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
30%-1 vs avg
Gemini
35%+4 vs avg
Claude
25%-6 vs avg
Grok
35%+4 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceChinese semiconductor industry analysts, SemiAnalysis, etc. 2026