Will any major economist or central bank research arm publish 2026 work tempering AI productivity assumptions embedded in economic forecasts?
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
71%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Alignedmodels
5pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
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Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
70%-1 vs avg
Gemini
75%+4 vs avg
Claude
72%+1 vs avg
Grok
70%-1 vs avg
Resolution criteria
SourceBIS, IMF, OECD, major central bank research publications 2026