What will the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield be at the last Treasury market close of 2026?
Cross-model percentile distribution over time. Outer band p5—p95, inner band p25—p75, line p50. Repolled daily at 06:35 server time.
Each model's distribution and reasoning. The Crene aggregate above is the median of each percentile across these four models.
Current 10Y yields are around 4.2%; central estimate assumes moderate growth continuation with yields rising modestly as the economy normalizes through 2026. Distribution reflects uncertainty around Fed policy trajectory, inflation persistence, and economic growth, with meaningful tail risk on both sides.
The central estimate (P50) of 3.25% reflects a moderate tightening in monetary policy and a gradual economic recovery over the next few years. The tails (P5 and P95) indicate considerable uncertainty, influenced by factors like inflation, fiscal policy, and global economic conditions that could push yields lower or higher than expected.
The central estimate reflects a moderate increase from current levels, anticipating continued inflation and monetary policy adjustments. Wider tails account for a range of potential outcomes, including sharper rate hikes or a quicker return to lower inflation.
The central estimate of 3.6% reflects expectations of moderate economic growth and inflation cooling to the Fed's 2% target by late 2026, with the Fed likely holding rates steady after cuts. The lower tail accounts for a potential recession driving yields down amid flight-to-safety, while the upper tail considers persistent inflation or fiscal pressures pushing yields higher. Uncertainty stems from geopolitical risks and policy shifts.