Reasoning
Current AI generation models are rapidly evolving to become more sophisticated, making detection increasingly challenging. While detection methods are also improving, the arms race suggests a point where adversarial generation could outpace detection capabilities, potentially pushing accuracy below 70% by 2028 if advancements in generation are significantly faster than defensive countermeasures.Key uncertainty
The rate of breakthrough research in adversarial generation techniques specifically designed to evade current and near-future detection methods.