Question 1

What is Crene?

Accepted Answer

Crene is investment thesis review infrastructure. The platform decomposes macro, labor, AI transition, and investment thesis questions into falsifiable components using four frontier AI models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok). The system produces three product types: thesis maps (binary decomposition into assumptions), factors (continuous decomposition into drivers), and scenarios (hybrid decomposition into coherent pathways). Cross model disagreement is the primary signal. Calibrated against 1,161 resolved events with a Brier score of 0.114.

Question 2

How does AI prediction calibration work at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Calibration applies at the consensus layer, not at the underlying model layer. Crene queries four frontier models in isolation, computes a cross model median consensus, and tracks resolution against a tiered source allowlist. Every resolved event becomes a permanent calibration point. Per tier accuracy, per model Brier scores, and per domain accuracy are computed live and published at https://crene.com/methodology.

Question 3

What is a Brier score?

Accepted Answer

A Brier score is the proper scoring rule for probability forecasts on binary outcomes. It is the mean squared error between the forecast probability and the realized outcome (0 or 1). Lower scores indicate better calibration. The no skill baseline is 0.25 (always predicting 0.5); a perfect forecaster scores 0.0. Crene publishes the consensus Brier score and per model Brier scores across the resolved event corpus.

Question 4

Who is Crene for?

Accepted Answer

Crene serves investment teams that need a repeatable thesis review process: hedge funds, asset managers, macro PMs, CIO offices, family offices, and thematic investment teams. A team brings one thesis it is actively debating. Crene maps what the thesis depends on, where models disagree, what changed each week, and what would force a rethink. Data and API access remain available as the proof layer behind the workflow.

Question 5

What is the difference between an event, a thesis map, and a factor at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Crene has four product types. Events are base binary outcomes with scalar probabilities. Thesis maps decompose binary anchor questions into child situations. Factor maps decompose continuous variables into drivers. Scenarios map long horizon investment questions into coherent pathways across live systems including Empire by Default, AI Labor Transition, European Rearmament, and India as the Third Growth Pole.

Will any major US publisher publish an AI generated book that reaches a bestseller list by 2029?

Belief trajectory

Per-model probabilities

Will any major US publisher publish an AI generated book that reaches a bestseller list by 2029?

Belief trajectory

Per-model probabilities