Will AI generated deepfake pornography legislation pass at the federal level by 2028?
Resolves Dec 31, 2028
62%probability
4-model average
LOWconfidence
building category history
—stability
loading
Divergingmodels
30pt spread
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on the probability: confidence reflects category-level track record, stability tracks how the estimate has moved over time, models shows whether the four agree.
Belief trajectory
Loading belief trajectory...
Per-model probabilities
GPT-4o
65%+3 vs avg
Gemini
70%+8 vs avg
Claude
72%+10 vs avg
Grok
42%-20 vs avg
Key disagreementClaude (72%) vs Grok (42%): Different weighting of factors