Assumptions, model disagreement, and rethink triggers, updated weekly before your PM, risk, or IC discussion. Currently accepting one macro thesis and one AI-economy thesis for July.
4-model average
building category history
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17pt spread
Consensus sits at 38% across the four models and is — (loading). Models are mixed at a 17pt spread, so the average conceals live disagreement worth inspecting below. Category confidence is LOW (building category history).
Confidence reflects category-level track record. Stability tracks estimate movement. Models shows whether the four agree.
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Historical Edelman Trust Barometer data shows a clear trend of fluctuating trust levels in online information, with a notable decline observed in 2020, coinciding with the misinformation challenges during the pandemic. Current surveys indicate a decline in trust among younger demographics, with the trust level concerning social media platforms dropping by approximately 15 points over the past two years. If misinformation continues to permeate mainstream narratives, a further decline of over 20 points by 2029 remains plausible, especially given that only 20% of respondents in the most recent survey expressed significant trust in online news sources.
Edelman's Trust Barometer has shown volatility in trust in online information, with annual fluctuations often exceeding 5-10 points. Given the increasing sophistication of disinformation campaigns, the persistent political polarization, and the rapid evolution of AI-generated content, a cumulative decline of over 20 points by 2029 is plausible, though not a certainty. Historically, trust in institutions, including online information sources, has been susceptible to significant shifts based on major events and perceived failures in information integrity.
The Edelman Trust Barometer shows US trust in online information has fluctuated between 40-48% over the past decade, with a 20+ point decline requiring movement to below 28% by 2029. While structural pressures exist (AI-generated content, polarization, algorithmic misinformation), trust has proven relatively resilient despite scandals—it declined only ~8 points from 2016-2022 despite major crises. A 20-point drop in 4 years would represent an unprecedented acceleration requiring sustained catastrophic erosion of information ecosystems. Current 2025 baseline trust levels and historical volatility patterns suggest this extreme threshold is more likely than not to be missed.
Edelman 2024 US online information trust stands at 53% for traditional media and 43% for social platforms; a 20-point drop would require sustained erosion beyond the 3-5 point annual volatility seen 2018-2024. Key drivers include AI-generated misinformation scaling post-2024 election (MIT studies show 2x higher distrust after deepfake exposure) and potential FCC/FTC content regulations under the new administration that could either restore or further fragment trust. Historical precedent shows trust rebounds 4-7 points within 18 months after major platform policy interventions (e.g., post-2020 election reforms).