Assumptions, model disagreement, and rethink triggers, updated weekly before your PM, risk, or IC discussion. Currently accepting one macro thesis and one AI-economy thesis for July.
4-model average
building category history
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17pt spread
Consensus sits at 65% across the four models and is — (loading). Models are mixed at a 17pt spread, so the average conceals live disagreement worth inspecting below. Category confidence is LOW (building category history).
Confidence reflects category-level track record. Stability tracks estimate movement. Models shows whether the four agree.
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According to a 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47% of U.S. adults already express skepticism about the accuracy of online information. This trend has been exacerbated by recent misinformation campaigns surrounding significant events, highlighting ongoing distrust. Additionally, the rise of deepfake technology and social media's role in spreading unverified content could further erode trust, supporting a projection that over 40% may continue to be wary by 2028.
Growing public awareness of AI-generated content, deepfakes, and sophisticated disinformation campaigns, coupled with increasing media coverage of these issues, suggests a continuing erosion of trust. A Pew Research Center study in 2022 found 43% of US adults believe fake news is an "important problem" that needs to be solved, indicating a significant existing concern that is likely to intensify by 2028.
Current surveys show 64% of US adults already express concerns about online content authenticity (Pew Research 2023), and distrust has grown ~8-12 percentage points annually over the past 3 years amid AI deepfakes, misinformation, and platform algorithm concerns. Reaching 40% represents a modest 4-8 percentage point decline from current baseline levels by 2028, making this highly likely given acceleration in synthetic media technology, election cycles amplifying authenticity concerns, and generational shifts toward skepticism. The trend direction is strongly established with structural drivers (AI capabilities, platform incentives, geopolitical information warfare) likely to intensify rather than reverse.
Pew Research’s 2023 survey found 54% of US adults already distrust most online content they encounter; combined with the 2022-2024 rise in synthetic-media incidents (CISA logged 312 deepfake election-related cases vs. 47 in 2020) and accelerating generative-AI adoption (OpenAI reported >200 M weekly active users by March 2024), distrust is on track to exceed 40% well before 2028. Legislative and platform-level watermarking efforts remain nascent—EU AI Act enforcement begins August 2026 with limited US follow-through—so near-term supply of unlabelled synthetic content will likely stay high.