Assumptions, model disagreement, and rethink triggers, updated weekly before your PM, risk, or IC discussion. Currently accepting one macro thesis and one AI-economy thesis for July.
4-model average
building category history
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6pt spread
Consensus sits at 75% across the four models and is — (loading). Models are aligned at a 6pt spread. Category confidence is LOW (building category history).
Confidence reflects category-level track record. Stability tracks estimate movement. Models shows whether the four agree.
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As of 2023, AI-generated content is rapidly gaining traction, with estimates indicating that AI-generated images could constitute 30% of stock images on major platforms by the end of 2025 (according to recent industry surveys). Additionally, the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of AI tools, alongside a growing trend in digital media consumption, are likely to accelerate this shift. Given that traditional photography platforms are experiencing stagnation in volume growth, the momentum toward AI adoption suggests a high probability of AI exceeding human-generated content by 2028.
The rapid advancement and increasing accessibility of AI image generation tools, coupled with the lower cost and faster production times compared to human photographers, strongly suggest a dramatic shift in stock photography volume. Major platforms are already integrating AI-generated content, and the economic incentive to leverage these technologies for a higher quantity of diverse imagery by 2028 is substantial, mirroring historical shifts towards more efficient production methods in creative industries.
AI-generated imagery is growing exponentially—Shutterstock integrated DALL-E in 2023, Getty Images launched Generative AI Credits in 2024, and Adobe Firefly is integrated into stock platforms. Current data shows AI image generation costs ~$0.10-1.00 per image versus human photography averaging $50-500+, creating a 50-500x cost advantage. Major platforms reported 30-40% YoY growth in AI content uploads in 2024. By 2028 (4 years), at current acceleration rates and with legal/licensing frameworks stabilizing post-2025, volume parity is highly probable. However, resolution depends on how "major platforms" count submissions—if excluding rejected/low-quality AI content, human photography might retain slight edge in usable inventory.
Midjourney and Stable Diffusion alone generated over 15 billion images in 2023 versus ~3 billion human stock uploads across Shutterstock, Adobe Stock, and Getty; AI tools now account for 35-40% of new uploads on Shutterstock since its 2023 integration, with generation costs falling below $0.01/image while human shoots average $200-500. Licensing revenue share for AI content is already 12% of Shutterstock's total in Q3 2023 and growing 3x YoY.