Reasoning
The June 2026 SEP median of 3.8 percent already exceeds the 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range established on June 17, and nine of eighteen participants project the year end 2026 rate above that range, yet the current 3.8 percent median is only 5 basis points above the upper bound and the FOMC under Chair Warsh has signaled a data dependent stance after removing its cutting bias. Recent inflation prints and labor market data since June have been mixed, with the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent and core PCE at 2.6 percent year over year, leaving room for either further upward or downward revisions to the September SEP median.Key uncertainty
Whether the August employment report and July CPI release scheduled before the September 16 to 17 FOMC meeting show sufficient cooling to prompt more SEP participants to mark down their year end 2026 projections.