Reasoning
As of July 11, 2026, nine of eighteen SEP participants already project year end 2026 rates above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, with the median projection at 3.8 percent. This represents a significant hawkish shift from the March 2026 SEP median of 3.4 percent. The question requires at least 10 participants (just one more than currently projecting above range) to hold this view in the September SEP. Given that the Fed has held rates steady since June 17 and explicitly erased prior cutting bias under Chair Warsh's leadership, the economic and policy environment appears supportive of maintaining or increasing hawkish rate expectations. The momentum from nine already above range to ten represents a modest threshold requiring only marginal additional hawkish conviction among the remaining eight participants who currently project within or below range.Key uncertainty
Whether economic data between now and the September SEP (including inflation, labor market, and growth indicators) could shift participant expectations toward lower year end rates, causing some current above range projectors to moderate their forecasts, though this would need to overcome existing hawkish momentum.