Will the September 2026 SEP still include individual dots in substantially the same format as prior SEPs?

The June 2026 SEP median year end funds rate of 3.8 percent already lies above the 3.50 to 3.75 percent target range, and nine of eighteen participants project the year end 2026 rate above that range, indicating that the dot plot format has already shifted toward showing individual dots above the current policy band. Kevin Warsh's decision to hold rates and remove the cutting bias at the June 17 meeting further signals that the Committee is prepared to keep the dot plot as a forward guidance tool rather than revert to a uniform cluster format. Historical precedent shows that once the SEP begins displaying a dispersed distribution with multiple dots above the target range, the format is retained until a clear regime shift occurs, and the current policy environment does not suggest such a shift before September.